Without major investment in biomass, europe’s energy transition will be more expensive and less effective

Biomass is currently the European Union’s largest renewable energy source, yet it often takes a back seat to wind, solar, and other green technologies in climate strategies. However, a comprehensive new study led by Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden underscores the essential role biomass must play if Europe is to meet its climate targets affordably and effectively.

The analysis shows that excluding biomass from the European energy system would increase the cost of reaching negative emissions by €169 billion annually equivalent to the cost of excluding wind power. Biomass is unique among renewables: not only can it replace fossil fuels in sectors like steel, cement, power, chemicals, and transportation, it also offers one of the few viable options for carbon dioxide removal through carbon capture and storage (CCS).

Biomass sources such as energy crops, logging residues, straw, and wood waste are already helping industries cut emissions. When paired with CCS, using biomass becomes even more powerful. Because biomass absorbs CO₂ during growth, capturing the carbon released when it’s used for energy can result in negative emissions—a critical component of climate strategy as Europe aims to go beyond carbon neutrality.

The Cost of Limiting Biomass

With competition for renewable resources growing, policymakers face tough decisions about how to allocate and scale up clean energy technologies. The Chalmers-led study modelled the future European energy system across sectors—electricity, heating, transport, and industry—under both net-zero and negative emissions targets. It found that biomass is indispensable for a cost-effective transition.

“If biomass is completely excluded, energy system costs rise by 20%, or €169 billion per year,” said lead author Markus Millinger. Even limiting biomass to current usage levels raises costs by 5%. But the financial burden isn’t the only issue.

“The real challenge is scaling up alternatives,” Millinger noted. “Even with biomass, the transition is tough. Without it, the need for other fossil-free energy sources becomes even more overwhelming.” Moreover, without biomass and CCS, Europe would have to rely more heavily on expensive direct air capture technologies to achieve negative emissions—solutions that consume energy rather than generate it.

More Than Just an Energy Source

The study also shifts the perspective on biomass: its primary value lies not in the energy it provides, but in its carbon content. Biomass can supply energy while enabling negative emissions or substituting fossil carbon in fuels and materials. The sector in which biomass is used matters less than ensuring that the carbon atoms are captured and stored or reused effectively.

Millinger explains, “As long as the carbon atoms are utilised, the specific application—electricity, heating, or fuels—is secondary. The key is designing systems and infrastructure suited to each country’s conditions.”

Implications for Policy

The research, based on advanced modelling of energy systems, offers an expanded foundation for policymaking—particularly in designing strategies around biomass and carbon capture. Establishing a robust market for fossil-free carbon could attract the investment needed to scale up these technologies. But this depends on stable, long-term policy support.

“Current policies tend to value energy more than the carbon content of biomass,” said Millinger. “That needs to change if we’re to unlock its full climate potential.”
Still, concerns over biodiversity, food security, and land use must be addressed. As Professor Göran Berndes of Chalmers points out, sustainability frameworks in agriculture and forestry are evolving. With the right regulations and incentives, bioenergy systems can not only support the energy transition but also improve land-use practices.
“Rewarding landowners for sustainable practices could shift development away from environmentally harmful activities,” Berndes said.

The Bottom Line

For Europe to achieve its climate goals efficiently, biomass must be at the centre of energy planning—not sidelined. With smart investment and policy, it can deliver not just renewable energy, but one of our most powerful tools for removing carbon from the atmosphere.