New research suggests climate change is happening slower than thought

A new research paper published in Nature Geoscience has revealed that climate change could be happening at a much slower rate than previously thought. Global warming has not increased since 1998 despite the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide, which researchers have said could mean a lower level of warming in coming decades.

This slowdown in the rise of global temperatures has been studied for years and has resulted in several changes in temperature forecasts. The UK Met Office lowered its temperature forecast covering the next five years earlier this year as a result of continued research into the expected rate of global warming.

The new research has suggested that temperatures over the next century will rise at a much slower rate than previously estimated, which could mean that the world has more of an opportunity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The agreed threshold for climate change that could have dangerous repercussions is two degrees centigrade, which is what governments have been working to stay within. This would mean a peak of global emissions by 2020 followed by a massive decrease that many have termed as unrealistic.

Piers Forster, contributor to the study from University of Leeds, said: "If previous estimates were true, keeping the world below two degrees centigrade would have been almost impossible however big our emission cuts. Now it looks like we have a chance, so we should take it."

The new research was performed by an international team of researchers and looked into the long and short term effects of a climate slowdown. The researchers looked into the last decade and how it was due to affect climate sensitivity and climate response.

In 2007 it was reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that short-term temperature would rise between one and three degrees centigrade. In contrast, the new research, which only took into account the global temperatures from the last ten years, has said that the temperature change would be between 0.9 and 2.0 degrees centigrade.

Despite re-estimations concerning short-term changes to global temperature, those involved in the research have said that long-term changes are in line with previous estimates.