Have China’s Carbon Emissions Peaked?

Until very recently, China was seen as the biggest contributing source of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and the largest obstacle to overcoming climate change. Although its emissions remain undoubtedly high, there is hope among certain sectors that these have peaked – and that China is on the path towards cleaning up its act in terms of carbon emissions.

According to a report co-authored by Fergus Green and Lord Stern, emissions from the Asian superpower have either already peaked or will do so in the very near future. If true, this would spell fantastic news for environmentalists the world over, since the world’s biggest carbon emitter would be in line to achieve its targets far in advance of the dates previously agreed.

On the Path to Cleaner Air

Back in the mid-2000s, things didn’t look good on the environmental front for the nation of China. Its capital Beijing was named as the most polluted city in the world; 16 of the 20 most contaminated cities worldwide were found in China and, perhaps most concerning of all, as recently as 2011, Chinese power plants spewed out as much NOx as all of the passenger cars in the world.  

However, a conscientious programme of reforms in the intervening years has seen a new era in air quality monitoring in China with the implementation of a 12th 5-year plan. The result? A slow but steady reduction in the amount of emissions coming from the country, as a decline in their industry and economy has been accompanied by a concerted effort to switch to more environmentally-friendly methods of energy production. Indeed, in the last five years, China has invested more money into green energy than any other country in the world.

Of course, there is a chance that a resurgence in Chinese growth will lead to an attendant hike in emissions, though there was encouragement in December when global emissions fell for the first time during a period of economic growth. Furthermore, the inclusion of a review period for environmental targets every five year (a policy that was strongly championed by the Chinese) means they will be in an excellent position to meet those targets ahead of schedule if current trends continue.

Europe Falling Behind

In contrast with the positive news coming from China, there were disappointing announcements from Europe. Despite the fact that the 196 nations who attended the Paris COP21 climate talks agreed to aim for an ideal hike in global temperature of 1.5°C (as exposed to the outright maximum of 2°C), the EU recently signalled its intention not to re-evaluate its plans.

As such, experts believe it will not be possible for the planet to stay under 1.5°C without a greater effort from European nations – and that even 2°C may be only barely attainable. A promise from the EU to take stock of the situation again in 2030 is seen as being too little too late by many critics of the EU.

“The Commission must stop pretending Paris didn’t happen,” said Bram Claeys to the Guardian, the climate and energy policy advisor for Greenpeace. “It has a responsibility to step up climate action to reflect the Paris deal in legislation on renewables and energy efficiency. People won’t trust the EU if it continues to play fast and loose with global warming and delays Europe’s shift to 100% renewable energy.”